Polymarket: AI Bets When It Disagrees with the Market

Created by

B3 Team

Root

Scrape Fed

Scrape SEC News

Scrape Wh

Extract Events

About

Trades US-based policy events based on AI forecasts. On a set schedule, the workflow scrapes news from the Fed, SEC, and White House, has an AI assign probabilities to forecastable events, and searches Polymarket for a matching market. If the AI's probability differs from the live market price by more than your gap threshold, it sizes a bet as a percentage of your bankroll, places a Fill-And-Kill order, and sends a Telegram alert with the market link, outcome, gap, and AI reasoning. If there's no gap or no matching market, it skips.

Quick Setup

Import your wallet or connect your B3OS Treasury Wallet
Set the trigger schedule - how often the bot scans for news
Pick news sources (Defaults: Fed, SEC, White House - any Firecrawl-reachable URL works)
Choose your AI model (Default: openai/gpt-4o)
Set the gap threshold - minimum AI-vs-market difference needed to fire a bet
Set bet sizing - a bankroll multiplier (e.g. 0.02 = 2%) plus min/max in pUSD (Polymarket's currency)
Connect Telegram for placed-bet and skip alerts
Test and publish!

Preview

Analyze Market Divergence

Action

Context:TOP_EVENT: extract-events:output.topEvent MARKETS: search-markets:markets

Json Schema:{"type":"object","properties":{"tokenId":{"type":"string"},"side":{"type":"string","enum":["BUY"]},"marketPrice":{"type":"number"},"aiProbability":{"type":"number"},"question":{"type":"string"},"outcome":{"type":"string"},"marketSlug":{"type":"string"},"reasoning":{"type":"string"}},"required":["tokenId","side","marketPrice","aiProbability","question","outcome","marketSlug","reasoning"],"additionalProperties":false}

Max Tokens:1024

Model:openai/gpt-4o

Prompt:Given the top event and the returned markets, pick the single best-matching market, choose the outcome whose price disagrees with the AI probability. Side is always BUY (buy the under-priced outcome). Also return the picked market's `slug` field as marketSlug. Provide a clear reasoning explaining your match and note match quality.

Response Format:json_schema

System Prompt:You compare an AI-estimated event probability to Polymarket market prices and decide which outcome is under-priced. Convention: marketPrice = the current price of the YES outcome (between 0 and 1). Direction rule — always BUY the under-priced side: - If aiProbability > marketPrice → BUY the YES outcome (its tokenId, outcome = "Yes" or equivalent). - If aiProbability < marketPrice → BUY the NO outcome (its tokenId, outcome = "No" or equivalent). Always pick the single best-matching market from the returned list and always return real values for every field: - tokenId = the chosen outcome's tokenId (non-empty) - marketPrice = chosen outcome's price (0–1) - aiProbability = your probability estimate for this event (0–1) - question = the market's question text - outcome = "Yes" or "No" (whichever you chose) - marketSlug = the picked market's slug (used to build a Polymarket URL) - reasoning = explain the match and note match quality Do NOT compute divergencePp yourself — it is computed deterministically downstream from aiProbability and marketPrice. If the best available market is only weakly related to the event, still pick it, but surface that weakness in `reasoning` — the threshold gate decides whether to bet, not you. Side is always "BUY".

Temperature:0.2

check-divergence

Action

Condition:{"$and":[{"{{compute-divergence.result.output.tokenId}}":{"$ne":""}},{"{{compute-divergence.result.output.divergencePp}}":{"$gt":"{{$props.if_condition_and_gt}}"}}]}

check-has-markets

Action

Condition:{"$and":[{"{{search-markets.result.count}}":{"$gt":0}}]}

Compute Divergence

Action

Code:function transform(input) { const ai = Number(input.aiProbability); const mkt = Number(input.marketPrice); const d = Math.abs(ai - mkt) * 100; return { ...input, divergencePp: Math.round(d * 10) / 10 }; }

Input:Analyze Market Divergence:output

extract-events

Action

Context:SOURCE 1: scrape-fed:data.markdown SOURCE 2: Scrape SEC News:data.markdown SOURCE 3: scrape-wh:data.markdown

Json Schema:{"type":"object","properties":{"events":{"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","properties":{"title":{"type":"string"},"query":{"type":"string"},"aiProbability":{"type":"number"},"reasoning":{"type":"string"}},"required":["title","query","aiProbability","reasoning"],"additionalProperties":false}},"topEvent":{"type":"object","properties":{"title":{"type":"string"},"query":{"type":"string"},"aiProbability":{"type":"number"}},"required":["title","query","aiProbability"],"additionalProperties":false}},"required":["events","topEvent"],"additionalProperties":false}

Max Tokens:4096

Model:openai/gpt-4o

Prompt:Extract up to 5 forecastable events from the news text below. For each event, provide a concise Polymarket-style search query and your probability estimate (0-1). Also pick the single topEvent most likely to have a matching Polymarket market.

Response Format:json_schema

System Prompt:You analyze policy and regulatory news and extract forecastable events that could be traded on prediction markets like Polymarket. Estimate probabilities only from the supplied text.

Temperature:0.3

get-balance

Action

notify

Message configured

*Polymarket bet placed* *Market:* [{{compute-divergence.result.output.question}}](https://polymarket.com/market/{{compute-divergence.result.output.marketSlug}}) *Outcome:* {{compute-divergence.result.output.outcome}} ({{compute-divergence.result.output.side}}) *Edge* - AI probability: {{compute-divergence.result.output.aiProbability}} - Market price: {{compute-divergence.result.output.marketPrice}} - Divergence: *{{compute-divergence.result.output.divergencePp}}pp* *Order* - ID: `{{place-bet.result.orderId}}` - Amount spent: {{place-bet.result.amountSpent}} pUSD - Bankroll: {{get-balance.result.balanceFormatted}} pUSD _Reasoning:_ {{compute-divergence.result.output.reasoning}}

place-bet

Action

Mode:manual

Order Type:FAK

Price Mode:market

Side:BUY

Token Id:Compute Divergence:output.tokenId

Amount:$1

root

Action

Schedule:

scrape-fed

Action

Call {{$props.firecrawl_scrape_url_url}}

Formats:markdown

Only Main Content:true

Scrape SEC News

Action

Call {{$props.firecrawl_scrape_url_url_2}}

Formats:markdown

Only Main Content:true

scrape-wh

Action

Call {{$props.firecrawl_scrape_url_url_3}}

Formats:markdown

Only Main Content:true

search-markets

Action

Limit:5

Order By:liquidity

Query:extract-events:output.topEvent.query

skip-bet

Action

No bet. Top event: extract-events.result.output.topEvent.title | divergence compute-divergence.result.output.divergencePppp

skip-no-markets

Action

No matching Polymarket markets for query: extract-events.result.output.topEvent.query

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