Polymarket: Weather Betting Bot (3-Model Consensus)
Scans Polymarket temperature markets every 10 minutes, fetches 3-model weather forecasts (ICON/GFS/ECMWF) with bias correction for exact station coordinates, builds a 3-bin portfolio with price filters, and places bets. Covers 11 cities across 4 continents. Based on @theparuchh strategy (+45.9% ROI).
Trigger: Cronjob → Actions: Build Betting Portfolio, Build Run Summary, Fetch Weather Forecast, Format Bet Summary, Group Markets by City, Log Skipped Market, Place Bets on Selected Bins, Process Qualifying Cities, Notify Results, Place Temperature Bin Bet, Search Weather Markets, Check for Qualifying Bets
Polymarket: Weather Betting Bot (3-Model Consensus)
Created by
B3 Team
1.
Schedule Scan
2.
Search Weather Markets
3.
Group Markets by City
4.
Process Qualifying Cities
6.Build Run Summary
About
Scans Polymarket temperature markets every 10 minutes, fetches 3-model weather forecasts (ICON/GFS/ECMWF) with bias correction for exact station coordinates, builds a 3-bin portfolio with price filters, and places bets. Covers 11 cities across 4 continents. Based on @theparuchh strategy (+45.9% ROI).
Preview
Build Betting Portfolio
Action
Code:function transform(input) {
var forecast=input.forecast, bins=input.bins, city=input.city, isUS=input.isUS;
if (!forecast||!forecast.hourly) return {betCount:0,bets:[],skipReason:'No forecast'};
var h=forecast.hourly;
var ic=(h.temperature_2m_icon_seamless||[]).filter(function(v){return v!==null;});
var gf=(h.temperature_2m_gfs_seamless||[]).filter(function(v){return v!==null;});
var ec=(h.temperature_2m_ecmwf_ifs025||[]).filter(function(v){return v!==null;});
if (!ic.length||!gf.length||!ec.length) return {betCount:0,bets:[],skipReason:'Missing model'};
var iM=Math.max.apply(null,ic), gM=Math.max.apply(null,gf), eM=Math.max.apply(null,ec);
var spread=Math.max(iM,gM,eM)-Math.min(iM,gM,eM);
if (spread>3) return {betCount:0,bets:[],skipReason:'Spread '+spread.toFixed(1)+'C'};
var pairs=[{d:Math.abs(iM-gM),a:(iM+gM)/2,o:eM},{d:Math.abs(iM-eM),a:(iM+eM)/2,o:gM},{d:Math.abs(gM-eM),a:(gM+eM)/2,o:iM}];
var best=pairs[0]; for(var i=1;i<pairs.length;i++){if(pairs[i].d<best.d)best=pairs[i];}
var center,outlier=null;
if(best.d<=1){center=best.a;outlier=best.o;}else{center=(iM+gM+eM)/3;}
var mc=isUS?center*9/5+32:center;
var mo=outlier!==null?(isUS?outlier*9/5+32:outlier):null;
if(bins.length<3) return {betCount:0,bets:[],skipReason:'Few bins ('+bins.length+')'}; var ci=0,md=999;
for(var x=0;x<bins.length;x++){var dd=Math.abs(bins[x].mid-mc);if(dd<md){md=dd;ci=x;}}
var plan=[bins[ci]];
if(mo!==null&&mo>mc){if(ci+1<bins.length)plan.push(bins[ci+1]);if(ci+2<bins.length)plan.push(bins[ci+2]);}
else{if(ci+1<bins.length)plan.push(bins[ci+1]);if(ci-1>=0)plan.push(bins[ci-1]);}
if(plan.length<2) return {betCount:0,bets:[],skipReason:'Not enough adj bins'};
var ps=plan.map(function(b){return b.price;}),sum=0;
for(var p=0;p<ps.length;p++)sum+=ps[p];
if(sum>0.95) return {betCount:0,bets:[],skipReason:'Sum '+sum.toFixed(2)};
for(var q=0;q<ps.length;q++){if(ps[q]<0.01)return {betCount:0,bets:[],skipReason:'Bin<1c'};if(ps[q]>0.45)return {betCount:0,bets:[],skipReason:'Bin>45c'};}
return {
betCount:plan.length,
bets:plan.map(function(b){return {tokenId:b.tokenId,price:b.price,range:b.q};}),
city:city,center:mc.toFixed(1),spread:spread.toFixed(1),
models:{icon:iM.toFixed(1),gfs:gM.toFixed(1),ecmwf:eM.toFixed(1)}
};
}
Input:{"bins":"{{$item.bins}}","city":"{{$item.city}}","forecast":"{{fetch_forecast.result.json}}","isUS":"{{$item.isUS}}"}
Build Run Summary
Action
Code:function transform(input){if(!input||input.length===0)return{totalBets:0,lines:[],summary:'No qualifying cities found this scan'};var lines=[];var cities={};for(var i=0;i<input.length;i++){var iter=input[i];var p=iter.build_portfolio&&iter.build_portfolio.output;if(!p||!p.betCount||p.betCount===0)continue;cities[p.city]=true;for(var j=0;j<(p.bets||[]).length;j++){var b=p.bets[j];lines.push({city:p.city,price:(b.price*100).toFixed(0)+'c',center:p.center,spread:p.spread,models:p.models.icon+'/'+p.models.gfs+'/'+p.models.ecmwf});}}var nc=Object.keys(cities).length;return{totalBets:lines.length,lines:lines,summary:lines.length>0?lines.length+' bet(s) placed across '+nc+' city/cities':'No qualifying bets this scan'};}
Input:Process Qualifying Cities:iterations
Fetch Weather Forecast
Action
GET api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast
Format Bet Summary
Action
Format build_run_summary.result.output.lines using a template
Group Markets by City
Action
Code:function transform(input) {
var CITIES = {
'nyc': {lat:40.7772,lon:-73.8726,name:'NYC'},
'new york': {lat:40.7772,lon:-73.8726,name:'NYC'},
'atlanta': {lat:33.6407,lon:-84.4277,name:'Atlanta'},
'miami': {lat:25.7959,lon:-80.2870,name:'Miami'},
'chicago': {lat:41.9742,lon:-87.9073,name:'Chicago'},
'dallas': {lat:32.8471,lon:-96.8518,name:'Dallas'},
'tokyo': {lat:35.5494,lon:139.7798,name:'Tokyo'},
'hong kong': {lat:22.3022,lon:114.1742,name:'HongKong'},
'hongkong': {lat:22.3022,lon:114.1742,name:'HongKong'},
'singapore': {lat:1.3502,lon:103.9940,name:'Singapore'},
'seoul': {lat:37.4691,lon:126.4505,name:'Seoul'},
'london': {lat:51.5048,lon:0.0495,name:'London'},
'paris': {lat:48.9694,lon:2.4414,name:'Paris'}
};
var US = ['NYC','Atlanta','Miami','Chicago','Dallas'];
var WIN_MIN=18, WIN_MAX=30;
var now = new Date();
var groups = {};
for (var i=0; i<(input.markets||[]).length; i++) {
var m = input.markets[i];
if (!m.active || m.closed) continue;
var q = (m.question||'').toLowerCase();
var city = null;
var keys = Object.keys(CITIES);
for (var j=0; j<keys.length; j++) {
if (q.indexOf(keys[j]) >= 0) { city = CITIES[keys[j]]; break; }
}
if (!city) continue;
var end = new Date(m.endDate);
var hrs = (end - now) / 3600000;
if (hrs < WIN_MIN || hrs > WIN_MAX) continue;
var dateStr = m.endDate.split('T')[0];
var gk = city.name + '_' + dateStr;
if (!groups[gk]) {
var d = new Date(end); d.setUTCHours(0,0,0,0);
groups[gk] = {city:city.name, lat:city.lat, lon:city.lon, targetDate:d.toISOString().split('T')[0], isUS:US.indexOf(city.name)>=0, bins:[]};
}
var question = m.question||'';
var price = parseFloat((m.outcomePrices||[])[0]||'0');
var tid = (m.tokenIds||[])[0]||'';
if (!tid) continue;
var lo, hi;
var rangeMatch = question.match(/(\\d+)\\s*[-\\u2013]\\s*(\\d+)/);
if (rangeMatch) {
lo = parseFloat(rangeMatch[1]); hi = parseFloat(rangeMatch[2]);
} else {
var singleMatch = question.match(/be\\s+(\\d+)[\\u00b0]/);
if (singleMatch) { lo = parseFloat(singleMatch[1]); hi = lo; }
else if (question.match(/or below/i)) {
var bm = question.match(/(\\d+)[\\u00b0]/); if(bm){lo=parseFloat(bm[1])-1;hi=parseFloat(bm[1]);}
} else if (question.match(/or higher/i)) {
var hm = question.match(/(\\d+)[\\u00b0]/); if(hm){lo=parseFloat(hm[1]);hi=parseFloat(hm[1])+1;}
}
}
if (lo!==undefined && tid) {
groups[gk].bins.push({lo:lo,hi:hi,mid:(lo+hi)/2,price:price,tokenId:tid,q:question});
}
}
var results = [];
var gks = Object.keys(groups);
for (var k=0; k<gks.length; k++) {
var g = groups[gks[k]];
g.bins.sort(function(a,b){return a.lo - b.lo;});
if (g.bins.length >= 3) results.push(g);
}
return results;
}
Input:search_markets.result
Log Skipped Market
Action
Skipped Item: city: build_portfolio.result.output.skipReason
Place Bets on Selected Bins
Action
Array:Build Betting Portfolio:output.bets
Process Qualifying Cities
Action
Array:Group Markets by City:output
Notify Results
Message configured
Weather Bot -- {{build_run_summary.result.output.summary}} {{format_bets.result.formatted}}
Place Temperature Bin Bet
Action
Order Type:FAK
Price Mode:market
Side:BUY
Token Id:Item: tokenId
Amount:Prop: polymarket_place_bet_fixedamount
Schedule Scan
Action
Schedule:
{{$props.cronjob_rrule}}
Search Weather Markets
Action
Limit:Prop: polymarket_search_markets_limit
Query:temperature high
Check for Qualifying Bets
Action
Condition:{"$and":[{"{{build_portfolio.result.output.betCount}}":{"$gt":0}}]}
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